More Predictions for 2011
I can only really get away with the predictions-thing for so long. It’s January 24th and my cut-off for talking about 2011 ends on Feb 1st, so I’m going to milk my crystal ball for everything it’s worth.
Endangered, Facing Extinction
It’s estimated that 1,734 species will go extinct this year. Extinction rates are expected to continue climbing. This post isn’t about the extinction of species; it is about the possible extinction of irrelevant species of websites, applications and “me-too” product competitors.
It’s somewhat unfortunate, but a combination of consolidation and the network effect have led to this precipitous decline or failed adoption of these sites. Twitter and Facebook hold the smoking gun.
Gowalla = Tasmanian Forester Kangaroo
It’s unfortunate that the resemblance is so strong, but Gowalla is headed the way of this endangered species of Kangaroo.
Sure it’s cute; it’s got a little pouch and hops around. We’d all like to save an endangered species.
I don’t want to be all negative about it. We’ve all seen cartoons of boxing Kangaroos, so I don’t expect Gowalla to go down without a fight. They could turn it around.
However, much like endangered species activists who have trouble keeping this adorable kangaroo species alive, I fear that the small, loyal and devoted following of Gowalla may soon be starting a “Save the Gowalla” campaign.
Gowalla may have cute icons and a nice looking iPad app; but that can’t stop the rapid sprawl of Foursquare, SCVNGR and soon Facebook, that encroaches on the Gowalla’s natural habitat. If check-ins are a Gowalla’s source of food, then they are going to go hungry very soon.
There’s only so much money that investors will keep pumping into a project with only a small fighting chance, even if it is cute. Sorry to say it, but I smell extinction in its future.
MySpace = Giant Panda
Aw, what a cute idea: a place for friends.
Yes, Pandas are endangered and while MySpace may still have a user-base, I find myself wondering how long this charade will continue. It’s like the annual “will they or won’t they” Panda-mating news. MySpace isn’t looking good. Hopefully Pandas will have better luck than MySpace.
Other Endangered Species
This is a good thing
Valuations are way over-inflated right now. Social Media sites with absolutely no plan for revenue are being given millions and in some cases billions of dollars. I was only 20 years old when the dotcom tech bubble burst and even I learned my lesson. The free-for-all on investor money has hopefully slowed down.
Let’s let some of these sites go, peacefully, or in a hostile takeover, whichever is easier. In the end we’ll all be better off. Sometimes competition is a good thing, and at other times it just creates a fragmented market.